The Event Horizon Podcast
The Event Horizon Podcast is a newsletter-style show focused on the emerging prediction markets industry. It delivers news, analysis, and legal insights on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The podcast explores how these markets work, their regulatory landscape, and broader implications. It is an extension of the Substack newsletter neweventhorizon.substack.com.
Episodes
Episode 32: Talking Prediction Market Enforcement With Kalshi’s Robert DeNault
Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault joined me to talk about how investigations and enforcement work in prediction markets.Danieli O’Boyle of InGame returns to break down all the latest news in prediction markets, including a deluge of advertising deals.Show notes:Kalshi on recent enforcement actionsNovig and Sydney SweeneyDraftKings ads directly referring to KalshiSports is still pretty big!
Episode 31: News With Front Office Sports’ Ben Horney; Data With Grandstand’s Matt Restivo
Ben Horney of Front Office Sports stopped by to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. And Matt Restivo — SVP of Sports Data Services at Grandstand — chatted about data in PMs and the Optic Odds product.Show notes:New Jersey appeals to SCOTUS.Kalshi gets US Open deal.Injury markets.Kalshi bans George Santos. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subs
Episode 30: Is Prediction Markets Vs. States Coming To SCOTUS?
The Ninth Circuit delivered bad news to Kalshi on Friday, as the prediction market company lost its appeal to Nevada. Where does the legal battle for prediction markets go from here? The US Supreme Court is definitely in play.Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that news and everything else that happened last week in prediction markets.Show notes and more reporting/context on the decision:-E
Episode 29: Innovation-Maxxing At The CFTC
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission got a bunch of important people in prediction markets together for a meeting in Washington, DC. Did we learn anything? Why were people yelling at each other? What happens next? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that meeting, and all the recent news in prediction markets.Subscribe nowShow notes:The CFTC meetingA Republican problem for prediction mark
Episode 28: Prediction Market Policy With Aaron Klein Of The Brookings Institution
The Brookings Institution’s Aaron Klein stopped by to talk about all things prediction markets (starts at the 47-minute mark). He is a senior fellow at Brookings’ Center on Regulation and Markets and worked on the Dodd-Frank Act.Klein has led a pair of events about prediction markets hosted by Brookings:Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I also break down all the recent news in prediction markets, inclu
Episode 27: Interview With ProphetX Co-Founder Jake Benzaquen
There are endless stories and hot takes about people betting on wildfires…even though no one is actually offering markets on fires. And there are lots of people yelling about betting on drug trials. What exactly is going on? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame breaks that down and all the recent news in prediction markets.To wit, prediction markets on drug trials made NPR’s All Things Considered:Kalshi and P
Episode 26: Stakes Are High For Prediction Markets As Court Battles Intensify
It was a busy week in court for prediction markets, from a big lawsuit from the New York attorney general to a win for Kalshi in Minnesota. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and Dustin Gouker break down all the important news on the legal front and beyond in this week’s Event Horizon podcast.Show notes:Legal stuff, from InGame:New York Sues Kalshi In State Court, Asks For $36 Billion FineSixth Circuit Judg
Episode 25: Betting On LeBron James' Next Team Got Really Big At Prediction Markets
I’ll be at NEXTPredict in October; a lot of big names and smart people from the prediction markets industry will be there. Get your tickets now for 15% off using this link and promo code CLOSINGLINE15.We started the podcast just talking about how popular betting on LeBron James’ next team had become at Kalshi and other prediction markets. And then as Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I were wrapping up
Episode 24: Should Betting On Flight Cancellations Be Grounded?
Unfortunately, we recorded the podcast before all hell broke loose with the Trump teleprompter operator story. But we did talk about betting on flight cancellations, which Kalshi apparently decided to pause sometime after we recorded the podcast.But it’s still a good chat between me and Daniel O’Boyle of InGame on all the news of the week in prediction markets. I guess that will teach us to record
Episode 23: Silliness In Prediction Markets About Spotify
Did you know you can bet on Kalshi on how many Spotify streams artists will get? Well, of course you can, because you can bet on almost anything on Kalshi. But what happens when someone tries to manipulate the streaming metrics? We found that out last week! Daniel O’Boyle of InGame helps break down the latest nonsense.First, this at The Event Horizonhttps://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/how-arti
Episode 22: Kalshi Did A Deal With FIFA... Or Did It?
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I did an “emergency” podcast today to deal with all of the news that dropped on Friday morning. That includes a deal between Kalshi and FIFA…or rather Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet, apparently?Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond (press release): ADI Predictstreet, the Offic
Episode 21: Kalshi Volume Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop Growing
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down recent news in prediction markets, including Kalshi nearing $9 billion in weekly volume, new exchanges getting a green light, and a bad story for Polymarket.Kalshi volume (paywall at The Closing Line)ProphetXNovigRotheraWSJ on Polymarket This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visi
Episode 20: George Santos + Prediction Markets? Really?
Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I are still trying to process that the prediction markets news cycle now includes George Santos, somehow. We break down all the recent news in in the industry.Plus I talk with Kindbridge Behavioral Health CEO Daniel Umfleet about prediction markets, addiction, and treatment. News recap and analysis at the start; Interview with Kindbridge CEO at 31:13.George Santos, lol
Episode 19: Inside The Latest Polymarket Insider Trading Case
The Polymarket-Google fiasco:https://www.ingame.com/google-engineer-polymarket-insider-trading/https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-polymarket-google-case-and-insider-tradingTrump talks prediction marketshttps://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/trump-some-prediction-market-opponents-are-scumHere come new exchanges:DraftKings... https://www.ingame.com/draftkings-self-certifies-first-contracts
Episode 18: Senators, CAOCs And Survivor Betting
Senators talking prediction markets: https://closingline.substack.com/p/senators-were-fired-up-about-prediction-markets-at-hearingCombinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts!https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/its-not-a-parlay-its-a-combinatoric-athletic-outcome-contractBetting On Survivor:https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/stop-letting-people-bet-on-survivor This is a public episode. If you
Episode 17: Everyone Is Putting Kalshi Volume Under The Microscope
Breaking down Kalshi retail handle and parlays: https://www.ingame.com/kalshis-true-betting-handle-draftkings-fanduel/https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2026/kalshi-parlays-retail-bettor-losses-rfq-1234894471/Polymarket US is fully live: https://www.ingame.com/polymarket-us-live-without-waitlist/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or ge
Episode 16: The Big Sportsbooks Talk A Big Game On Prediction Market Plans
FanDuel and DraftKings on prediction markets:https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-fanduel-and-prediction-markets-q1https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-draftkings-and-genius-sports-said-about-prediction-markets-q1-earningsParlay volume!https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/most-of-kalshis-recent-volume-growth-from-parlaysMaryland and Massachusetts vs. Kalshihttps
Episode 15: Everyone Has A Comment On Prediction Markets
Everyone had comments for the CFTC on prediction markets rule making: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-most-interesting-comments-on-cftc-rulemaking-for-prediction-markets Senate bans prediction market trading by senators: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/30/congress/new-ban-on-prediction-market-trading-00901232Robinhood Q1 earnings and prediction markets: https://nexteventh
Episode 14: Candidates And A Soldier Betting On Themselves Is A Problem
Soldier arrested for Maduro betting: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/us-soldier-arrested-for-maduro-betsThree candidates caught betting on themselves: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/five-questions-after-kalshi-finesNY sues prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/new-york-ag-sues-coinbase-gemini This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with ot
Prediction Markets Provide Signal Amid Chaos In California Governor's Race
Fox + Kalshi…but no elections?https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/fox-news-has-a-kalshi-dealWhite House warns people not to insider trade on PMshttps://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/white-house-warns-staff-not-to-place-bets-on-prediction-markets-amid-iran-war-3780668fNCAA is big for Kalshihttps://www.ingame.com/2026-ncaa-tournament-volume-fees-kalshi/$1.1 trillion for PMs?https://www.bloomberg.c
Episode 12: What Novig Is Doing With Its $75M Round, With CEO Jacob Fortinsky
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 11: The CFTC Is All-In On Prediction Markets
Kalshi’s Sports Insurance Play — Hedging, Not Betting (Sporting Crypto)Volume Doesn’t Pay The Bills (LinkedIn) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 10: NBA, MLB Warming Up To Prediction Markets
Pet Berisha's piece on the Prediction Market Singularity https://newsletter.sportingcrypto.com/p/prediction-market-singularity This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 9: To Insider Trade, Or Not To Insider Trade?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 8: The CFTC Wants To Support Prediction Markets — So What's Next?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 7: Is Robinhood Going To Be The End Boss For Prediction Markets In 2026?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 6: All The Cool Kids Are Doing Prediction Markets
The number of platforms getting into prediction markets is growing by the day, with crypto exchange Gemini and sweepstakes casino MyPrize getting involved. Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto joins me again to break down recent developments in prediction markets. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.su
Episode 5: DraftKings Cometh, But Kalshi + Polymarket Level Up
DraftKings signaled its intent to get into sports prediction markets this week, but deals by the NHL with Kalshi and Polymarket have changed the meta in the industry. Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto helps me round up a wild week of news on this week’s podcast.Sports prediction markets face a new wave of fraud, from insider trading to syndicates and spoofed locations. Radar Protect helps platforms d
Episode 4: Kalshi And Polymarket Try To Take Over The World
Friday morning’s news dump from Kalshi led me and Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto to turn this in an emergency podcast.The news:* Kalshi is going live in 140+ countries, sharing a liquidity pool with the United States.* Kalshi also announced it recently raised more than $300 million at a $5B valuation, led by Sequoia and a16z. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other s
Episode 3: Polymarket's Pending US Launch Is The Elephant In The Room
When Polymarket launches in the US, what’s that going to look like and how disruptive might it be? Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto also talks with me about Robinhood going international, Kalshi wanting to go crypto, and how much do state-regulated sportsbooks need to worry about all of this… particularly Kalshi’s launch of parlays.Of note: Polymarket.us now has a landing page, but the app is not ye
Episode 2: Oh My God, Kalshi Killed Polymarket! (Not Really)
It’s take two of The Event Horizon podcast, as Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto joins me again to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket in trading volume, which has far more nuance to it than just the raw numbers.We also talk about what’s happening at the CFTC (Brian Quintenz was ousted as the nominee since we recorded it), how South Park was a big mom
Episode 1: The Intersection Of Crypto + Prediction Markets In The US
I recently started talking with Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto, and we decided to start a podcast on a lark. The wide-ranging first episode was a fun conversation; we pick each other’s brains on where prediction markets might be headed in the US. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
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