Stray Reflections
Stray Reflections is a macro advisory and community for top CIOs and PMs across the globe. The podcast focuses on seeing the present clearly rather than predicting the future. It offers investing ideas and aims to advance thinking in novel ways.
Episodes
The backwards will be beaten
A conversation with Grant Williams
AI trade: underestimated and underexposed
How wars actually end
A familiar stretch
The gamble of brinkmanship
Before the unthinkable
Revisiting the 1973-74 Bear Market
Replay: The Middle East Diaries
What the skyline says
Good bubble, bad bubble
The great humbling
An American self-portrait
1999: A Feeling
American vice
Not an AI bubble
The promise that changes you
The greatest game
America’s Great Leap
When America broke the system
Navigating China’s Bull Market
Kaiwen Wang from Clocktower Group provides a clear framework for reading China’s tape—policy signals, investor flows, and what comes next.
The Confidence Game: AI, Trump, and the S&P 500
A conversation with Peter Atwater on how shifts in confidence explain today’s AI boom, tariff talk, Trump’s influence, and the S&P 500’s path.
China decoded with Andrew Polk
From property slumps to AI ambitions, a clear-eyed look at China’s next chapter with Trivium China’s Andrew Polk.
Wisdom from Morgan Housel
Nonviolent communication with Danny Cohen
How to speak in a way that heals—ourselves, our relationships, and the world.
Clear Thinking with Shane Parrish
The price of acceptance
Love and repair with Terry Real
What most of us were never taught about love, marriage, and emotional growth.
Raising ourselves, not just children
Insights from Philippa Perry’s book, The Book You Wish Your Parents Had Read.
Conscious Living with Diana Chapman
Build, baby, build
A conversation with Daniel Dreyfus (CIO, Bornite Capital) on the buildout of American power—what’s driving it, what could derail it, and where investors should be paying attention.
Sitting with Steve Cohen: markets, mindset, meaning
A rare conversation with Steve Cohen (Point 72) that moved beyond markets.
The Industrialization of Intelligence
A conversation with Sean Maher, founder of Entext, to make sense of macro and technology trends. This exchange will challenge your assumptions, broaden your thinking, and offer a fresh lens on how the future might unfold.
The great monetary reset
A conversation with Marcel Kasumovich (CIO, Coinbase Asset Management) on all things macro and crypto.
The overbuilt AI dream
What if the AI boom is closer to a turning point than most realize?
A post-bubble reality
This isn’t 1995; we’re now in a post-bubble world.
Diary of a Trader
Paul Tudor Jones’ guidelines for trading success.
American Exuberance
History and anecdotal evidence suggest that American exceptionalism is evolving into exuberance as we race toward the peak.
Between worlds: endgame or new beginning?
Exploring the polarized possibilities of Trump’s presidency: a world teetering between unprecedented prosperity and catastrophic collapse.
Magnificently Risky
What if the S&P 500 is reaching heights that won’t be surpassed for the rest of the decade? Have you considered that?
The Inner Game of Trading
Trading is as much a mental and emotional challenge as it is about strategy and skill. The inner game defines how far you’ll go.
A year in reflection
“Self-reflection is the school of wisdom,” wrote Baltasar Gracian. As we close the chapter on 2024, his words remind us of the value of looking back to truly understand the path ahead. In this annual review, we revisit what we shared, examine where we were right, acknowledge where we fell short, and consider what these lessons mean for the year ahead.
A transformational journey awaits
We’re hosting the next Stray Reflections Retreat in Woodside, California, from May 5–8. Over four days, we’ll gather among the majestic redwoods to help you channel the success you’ve achieved in markets into other areas of life that need your care and attention.
Fatherhood with Louis-Vincent Gave
This conversation on parenting and fatherhood speaks to something universal: how we navigate relationships, cultivate presence, and embrace the journey of becoming better human beings.
Striking Thoughts
“To express oneself honestly—not lying to oneself—that, my friend, is very hard to do. That is what you must train for: to become one in a completely natural, uncontrived way.”
Replay: The Middle East Diaries
The Middle East is undergoing a major transformation, but it is possible to know exactly what will happen in the future. The Abrahamic religions display certain convergences within the field of eschatology.
Invest like it’s 1968
On a long enough timeline history repeats. But this isn’t 1995; we’re back in 1968.
Reflecting on Ten Transformative Years
Reflecting on the past decade of my personal and professional journey.
The Pursuit of Profit
Will 2020s be the decade when workers reclaim the reins of power?
Bull trap
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.
The American Myth
Has US military and financial power reached its limits? Pax Americana: is it really over? How safe are the dollar and US treasuries?
The Corporation
One of the leading causes of the shift of American values and the destruction of the American dream was the rise of corporations.
Après pandemic, le déluge?
I want to draw your attention to the mother of all worst-case scenarios—a climate risk that nobody is discussing. The global hydrological cycle is speeding up, and precipitation is becoming extreme. China is the country most vulnerable to flooding as global temperatures rise. Can aging dams maintain historical levels of flood protection in the face of extreme weather changes?
The Graduate
The lessons from friends were more valuable than anything I learned in school. They taught me everything worth knowing.
Old School Macro
This is my father's story.
Gotta have faith
In this magical conversation with Brie Stoner, I explore the importance of having faith, the role of devotion, and the desire for integrity in our quest of being the best version of ourselves.
Recovering from a Drawdown
How do you recover from a drawdown? What’s the trick to remember the mistakes you are most prone to repeating? Why is it so important to forgive yourself? Todd Edgar joins us to discuss the emotional journey and ways to get back in the black.
Diary of a Trader
Paul Tudor Jones’ guidelines for trading success.
Build Yourself with Tony Fadell
Tony Fadell led the teams that created the iPod, iPhone, and Nest Learning Thermostat. His new product is a book called Build, and it instructs readers on building careers, products, companies—and even oneself. He joins us to share his practical wisdom.
China’s legacy and destiny: Confucius, Marx, and Xi Jinping
If you believe you have a good understanding of China, think again. Alice Wang joins me for the most insightful, thought-provoking, and heartfelt discussion on China you’ll ever come across.
Successful Fathers
Practical wisdom on parenting from the book "Successful Fathers" by James Stenson
Masterclass with Greg Coffey (CIO, Kirkoswald)
Greg Coffey (CIO, Kirkoswald) delves into his distinguished trading career, sharing invaluable lessons and tracing his personal growth. He elaborates on his approach to risk management, offering practical advice to build portfolios that are “sensible and bulletproof.”
Anomalies with Karen Karniol-Tambour (Co-CIO, Bridgewater)
The beauty of macro is to look for anomalies and exploit them. Why is something happening that shouldn’t, or why isn’t something happening that should? Karen Karniol-Tambour (co-CIO, Bridgewater) shares her perspective on a few key anomalies.
Lessons of History
Nothing surprises the student of history. On a long enough timeline, history repeats. We therefore mustn’t think that ours is a unique experience; that the laws of history don’t apply to us.
Requiem for a dream
Every year make it a point to reflect on the events of March 2020, serving as a reminder of the sudden shifts that can occur in the world and their repercussions on financial markets.
The Confidence Game: Swiftmania, MAG7, and the US election
Peter Atwater joins us to explore the hidden role of confidence in the choices we make, and why events described as being unprecedented are often entirely predictable—if we know what to look for. You’ll learn how to spot opportunities, avoid psychological traps, and navigate the road ahead with clarity and confidence.
Reminder: Stray Reflections Retreat
I look forward to welcoming you to Woodside, California, in April for a week filled with practical wisdom, powerful connections, and life-changing tools.
Short Gremlins
When did you start believing in yourself?
Replay: Bitcoin’s Next Act
With bitcoin’s price returning to its 2021 highs, it’s critical to consider the long-term case for digital assets once more. What does a world in which bitcoin succeeds look like?
The Conscious Parent
Practical wisdom on parenting from Shefali Tsabary's book "The Conscious Parent"
Future Nostalgia
Rather than a dystopian, divisive future, what if are we on the cusp of a new golden age? This is technologically possible.
Ego is the enemy
Bringing together the most interesting people in the most interesting locations for the most interesting ideas.
Wisdom from Morgan Housel
Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money and Same as Ever, joins us to discuss timeless lessons from human behaviors that never change.
The Middle East Diaries: “Woe to the Arabs”
The Middle East is undergoing a major transformation, but it is possible to know exactly what will happen in the future. The Abrahamic religions display certain convergences within the field of eschatology.
Once upon a time in America
Why bother investing anywhere other than the US stock market? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have vastly outperformed global equities for more than a decade. It seems so obvious, doesn’t it? Remembering that this wasn’t always the case is crucial.
Announcement: Stray Reflections Retreat
I look forward to welcoming you to Woodside, California, in April for a week filled with practical wisdom, powerful connections, and life-changing tools.
What if AI is underhyped?
Glen Kacher (CIO, Light Street Capital) joins us to explore the AI theme one year on. Originally published for members-only in November 2023.
Clear Thinking with Shane Parrish
Shane Parrish, founder of Farnam Street and author of Clear Thinking, joins us to discuss practical strategies for navigating any situation with poise and intelligence.
Inner Game with Steve Cohen
Steven Cohen, CEO of Point 72 Asset Management, offers a rare glimpse at how he approaches his craft.
Annual Review: “Wonderment”
At the beginning of each year, we find ourselves reflecting in the mirror of our work. Every journey requires self-encounter along the way.
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