Street Signals
Street Signals is a weekly podcast that provides insights into the latest developments in financial markets, produced by State Street Markets. The show leverages new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise to deliver market analysis to institutional investors. Hosted by Tim Graf, State Street's Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, the podcast features discussions with guests from State Street and the broader industry on key matters moving markets.
Episodes
Jackson Hole 2026: Questions of Clarity and Credibility
August often brings important messaging shifts from the Federal Reserve, with their Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for 28-29 August, the usual forum. And we often speak to Marvin Loh, Senior Macro Strategist on our Americas team, about it. Unique circumstances might limit headline risk this year, but that's not for a lack of discussion material. Questions over the tightness of the labor market,
Cross-Market Signals for the Summer
As markets enter vacation mode, this week's podcast presents our annual summer overview of the proprietary indicators available from State Street Markets and how they map to the most relevant themes driving assets and currencies. The sustainability of the tech trade in equities, the near-term path of inflation and the direction of travel for the Federal Reserve and how they feed into a rate, curve
Marvin Barth: US Productivity, From Greenspan to Warsh
The passing of Alan Greenspan last month and confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman in May bookend two booms is US productivity: the mass networking of computing power during the Greenspan Fed of the 1990s and the explosion of inferential applications of computing power today. These cycles influence central bank policy in ways often underappreciated until their aftermath. Marvin B
Sir Ben Wallace: Defense, Deterrence and Lessons of Modern Warfare
The need for robust and enhanced defense spending in an increasingly fragmented world is a policy objective agreed upon across the political divide. Few are better positioned to comment on the obstacles and opportunities of the process than Sir Ben Wallace, a former Captain in the British Army, a member of Parliament for 20 years and Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom between 201
Mick Mulvaney: Policy, Polarization and Political Legacy
With so many unanswered questions about the direction of US domestic politics and the role the United States now plays in the world, few can bring the experience and depth of knowledge of the political process as this weeks guest, Mick Mulvaney. Mick is a former elected member of the US House of Representatives for South Carolina, serving four terms before joining the first Trump administration in
Alastair Campbell: Leadership, Media and the Populist Moment
Few people are better positioned to comment on current trends in media and politics than Alastair Campbell. After a long career in journalism and politics, serving as UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's Press Secretary and Downing Street Director of Communications and Strategy, Alastair now co-hosts The Rest Is Politics, the most popular politics podcast in the UK. This wide-ranging discussion covers t
Street Signals Turns 3!
As the podcast starts its fourth year, we take a look back this week: to its origins, how the content and message have changed over the years, what guests stood out as formative to building the audience and the lessons learned about macro and markets along the way. In a twist, the microphone gets turned around as well, with our host, Tim Graf, taking a turn as a guest. Ramu Thiagarajan, Head of Th
A New Chapter for US and China?
This week we explore the evolving US-China relationship and the drivers of the stellar equity market performance in Asia this year, joined by Dwyfor Evans, Head of Macro Strategy for Asia at State Street Markets. The recent summit meeting of US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping marked a thawing of relations but considerable questions remain around how the two countries will navigate
The RINO In the Room: Concentration Risks in Equities
As impressive the recent bounce in stocks has been, it is a Rally In Name Only. Large cap tech companies dominate returns, while almost everything else - whether at a country or a sector level - continues to struggle. With inflation spiking and interest rate markets starting to show signs of dislocation, it is worth asking if the concentration of returns carries with it the seeds of its own undoin
Are We In A New Inflation Regime?
To kick off State Street’s series of global research events, we are joined by research partner Alberto Cavallo, co-founder of PriceStats and Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. In this wide-ranging discussion of inflationary dynamics, we assess the last ten years of recurring price shocks and how much inflationary regimes and the price sensitivities of retailers and co
Strait Talk: Oil, Macro and the Political Economy
Wednesday’s hopeful news of a possible end to hostilities in Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz comes just as the macro impact of events is starting to be felt and seen in economic data. A resolution does not change the realities of high near-term inflation and the varying policy responses to it. Geopolitical disruptions are still going to resonate for some time. This week, we speak to Noel
US Stocks: Stick or Twist?
Short-term market conditions remain subject to the headlines. Long-term questions of US equity market performance and whether investors require a rethink of their asset allocation preferences are the same and as valid today as they were before the eruption of Middle East hostilities. This week, Dan Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Markets, talks to us about a new piece on the
Iran: Has the Market Moved On?
In a decade full of seismic geopolitical events, the conflict in Iran had the potential to rank amongst the most impactful. Yet financial markets never priced it as more than a fleeting instance of volatility. And now, the most severe dislocations are almost fully closed with the onset of talks to deescalate tensions. Question marks remain over energy supplies and the macroeconomic impacts of high
Crude Awakening: Rate Markets In An Energy Crisis
Many of the consequences of the latest disruption to global energy supply have yet to surface. While oil has been the immediate focus, volatility across global interest rate curves is emerging as an equally consequential second-order effect. Markets are rapidly reassessing the scale and timing of inflation and growth shocks – and how central banks are likely to respond. Whether this period of uphe
Iran Macro Risks: A Fragile Equilibrium
As the conflict in the Middle East enters a third week, markets remain uneasy but resilient. Lessons absorbed during past geopolitical shocks have so far kept this a slow-burn test of positioning and risk tolerance, rather than a volatility event with a specific breaking point. This week, we speak with Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas for State Street Markets as to whether thi
Strait Signals: Assessing the Iran War Risk Premium
A wider Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, seen for years as extreme ‘what-if’ risks, are now realities. The ranges of macroeconomic and geopolitical outcomes are as vast as they are unknowable, but reasonable future scenarios are starting to take shape. This week, we speak to Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management, about the evolvi
The Great Rotation: Stocks Under the Surface
While geopolitical uncertainty dominates headlines, this week’s episode digs deeper into themes driving markets before the weekend’s events — particularly the sharp rotation in equities in 2026 and the reassessment of crowded AI‑linked trades and their fundamental drivers. Cayla Seder, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Markets, speaks to the shifting market perception
Trading the Policy Whiplash
Market volatility continues to climb in February, with a landmark Supreme Court ruling on US tariffs last week upending US trade policy in an afternoon. Questions now circle as to whether last years trade-induced USD weakness that was expected to continue into 2026 is now at risk of reversal. Meanwhile, the yen's tumble under Takaichi-nomics has resumed, equities and gold remain choppy and many lo
The Year of the Fire Horse: China in Focus
In celebration of Lunar New Year, we take a deep dive into China’s political economy. Despite trade tensions, a weak consumer and a halting post‑COVID recovery, a powerful export boom kept China on track last year—and could do so again in 2026. Fresh off a two-week fact-finding trip across the country, Ning Sun, senior EM strategist at State Street Markets, joins us to unpack what she saw on the g
AI, Labor Disruptions and the Future of the Fed
The changing of the guard at the top of the Federal Reserve comes at a crucial time for policymakers and markets. It is far from certain whether the promise of artificial intelligence heralds an era of stronger trend growth, or if the displacement in labor markets that might result will prove more damaging. Kevin Warsh’s term as Chairman will surely be defined as much by this question as his
The Roots of Risk
Everybody loves an origin story, this week’s podcast has two. Featuring clips from our first episode, before the podcast even had a name, with our first guest, Fred Goodwin, a.k.a. Mr. Risk, we talk about the formative years of both the medium and the messenger. As his retirement nears, we look back over Fred’s long career as a trader, salesperson and strategist, and the many lessons learned along
The US Dollar Time Machine: Relevant Lessons from History
Extrapolating past results to predict future outcomes is typically futile. But what if we could isolate the most statistically relevant historic parallels towards making better forecasts? This week, we discuss the techniques of relevance based prediction and how more robust and successful outlooks can result from their use. Joining us are Megan Czasonis, Head of Portfolio Management Research at St
Taking Stock of '26: A Conversation with Ron O'Hanley
Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, is back on the podcast for a wide‑ranging discussion, looking back on the main stories of 2025 and ahead to the forces shaping 2026. Ron and host Tim Graf explore whether risks that once loomed large have faded or simply changed form, and how growth, monetary policy, and AI‑led investment may influence markets in 2026. Asset allocation trends, privat
Tackling the 2026 Consensus
The start of the year is always a convenient time to think about consensus risk. Market watchers have all updated their forecasts and published their year ahead pieces. For the first episode of Street Signals in 2026, host Tim Graf, head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, carries on a tradition in going through a few of the most prominent consensus outlooks, mapping them to the message from our proprieta
The Best Reads of 2025
Just before Christmas, it's tradition for the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to d
Trading Notes for '26
After getting the year-ahead views of the Macro Strategy team at State Street Markets last week (which you can listen to here), this week we hear from our FX Trading team. Questions of central bank independence and policy divergence top the list of risk factors for 2026, with implications of the AI investment cycle also factoring heavily into a macro outlook. We catch up with Peter Vincent, EMEA H
The 12 Trades of Risk-mas: A 2026 Macro Outlook
The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent, rising credit concerns enough to derail sentiment and valuations? Was 2025's dollar decline the beginning of a multi-year trend or is the buck on the brink of reversal? And are Japan's recent attempts at reflation about to stall or take the next st
Imbalanced Accounts: Trade and Capital in 2025 with Brad Setser
The signal events and dominant narratives of 2025 have not had quite the advertised effects where global current account and capital flow trends are concerned. As Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, notes, tariffs raise revenue for the US but so far its external position relative to Asia has, if anything, worsened. De-dollarization has been an eye-catching idea that sti
Global Competition and Its Trade Offs with Elliot Hentov
This week, we dive into the nuanced world of macroeconomics and geopolitics. Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management, joins us to explore the state of deglobalization and the current status of geo-strategic competition in trade, technology, energy production and capital allocation. As we navigate the shocks of recent years and move towards a new equilibri
Growth Beyond the AI Trade: Where Next?
Q3 earnings look like a prelude to a Santa rally, capping off another strong year for stocks. Sticking with a holiday theme, we can give thanks later this month for the outsized contribution of tech stocks to investor returns. But the AI narrative driving stocks in recent years is by now well understood and valuations look stretched. This week, we spend much of our time with Marija Veitmane, Head
The US Dollar Downtrend: Dawn or Denouement?
A stand-out macro trend of 2025, the weakness of the US dollar remains a focal point for a market that is still heavily short. Is the consensus risk ripe for a surprise or are further headwinds in store for the world's most widely traded currency? And how might macroeconomic developments in Japan, Europe and the UK add to or detract from the appeal for dollars? This week, we discuss these factors
Convexity, Resilience and Building Better Brakes with David Dredge
Investors tend to underestimate the probability of tail risk events and assume market correlations will be stable. These are well-understood yet persistent blind spots that damage long-term portfolio performance. This week, we talk to David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, as he shares his experiences and perspectives on the importance of overcoming these biases and incorporating convexity exposu
Fundamentals Over FOMO: Value Investing in the Age of AI
Growth stocks are driving returns and economic dynamism, but also sparking discussions of whether we sit in bubble territory. Our guest this week, Matt Smith, portfolio manager at QSM Asset Management, a long/short hedge fund with a value focus, provides a timely reminder of how a consistent, fundamental-oriented approach can still offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. We also walk through
Shutdown Economics
A shutdown of the US government raises myriad questions, particularly what economic impacts might be felt in the near-term and the bigger picture puzzle of how to assess the state of the economy when public data from government statistical agencies is delayed or unavailable. This week, we take a deep dive on those questions, with a focus on the September US CPI release as a test case for how to th
Constructing the Macro Mosaic with Mark Dow
Drawing on decades of experience as a policymaker, investor and trader, Mark Dow joins us this week, as we thread the currents driving the global macroeconomy together into a cohesive whole. From tariffs, inflation, US labor supply issues and Fed independence, to gold, the dollar, debt and deficits, with a side trip to Argentina in between, few stones are left unturned in this macro masterclass.Se
Do You Trust the Data?
Data drives decisions big and small, but a steady and worrying trend of deteriorating quality in public economic data adds an under-appreciated complexity to the choices made by central bankers and finance ministry officials. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Investment Management, joins us to discuss how and why this problem has become so acute in recent years, how private data sourc
How Stretched Are Stocks?
Our title is the most-often asked question of recent weeks, with equity markets making new all-time highs and inflows continuing, despite an overwhelmingly consensus belief that they are also overvalued. However, this seeming paradox can persist, as Dan Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Markets, highlights. We delve into the earnings power of the companies driving equity marke
Gilt Trip: Budgets, UK Politics and the Path of Populism
The British pound and gilts already face heavy scrutiny from markets, ahead of what could be a politically defining budget process for the UK Labour Party later this Autumn. As our guest this week details, a politically possible outcome that also keeps bond markets happy looks very difficult to achieve, potentially setting up for a period of volatility for UK assets and sterling. Helen Thomas, CEO
No More Fear Left for Fall?
Summer is giving way to autumn and risk markets see few signs of a fall. Its not for lack of potential threats. Questions of Fed independence swirl and the US economy offers in equal parts the potential to either slow sharply or re-accelerate and threaten hopes for easier policy. The path of inflation is still an open question. Emerging threats to fiscal and political stability in Europe and the U
Jackson Hole and Beyond: Labor Pains for the Fed
The investing world awaits the message from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. As an event, historically it can often disappoint those looking for answers. Expectations for clear guidance on near-term Fed policy seem low this year. Chairman Jay Powell regularly reminds markets (and politicians) that the two elements of the central banks mandate are now in conflict. Trade ta
The Buck Stops Where? FX Risk-Proofing for the Long Term
Currency markets can be a lot like equity markets in that over or under-valuations can stay stretched for longer than one might think possible, before mean reversion inevitably kicks in. Maintaining an effective FX process for the long-term requires special attention to these questions of fair value, while also keeping an eye on the day-to-day headlines and short-term price dislocations that offer
Where Next on Inflation's Puzzling Path?
Just when inflation was within striking distance of the Federal Reserves monetary policy target of 2%, allowing them to begin cutting rates last year, tariffs as a forceful policy choice of the US administration. Higher import duties have disrupted plans to ease rates and extend the soft landing of the US economy further. Tariffs also now appear to have introduced high uncertainty in the US labor
The Summer 2025 Market Watchlist
Street Signals has had its mini-hiatus and is now back for most of the rest of the summer. This week, host Tim Graf walks through the big questions hanging over markets, some of which will need to be considered in the coming weeks, before the flip flops are put back in the closet and trading desks are back to fully staffed. We ponder what's next for equity markets, whether we'll actually start to
Marvin Barth: The Framework of a Second American Century
The period following the Second World War is often referred to as the American Century, when the rise of the United States to global hegemon accelerated and solidified. Those who take an interest in the global political economy are starting to wonder if that era is coming to a close. But the volatility of US policy in recent years, as much as it has given rise to questions over whether this period
The Big Beautiful Podcast On Tax Cuts and Tariffs
The calm after the storm of April's volatility has been maintained, despite a massive fiscal expansion passing through Congress and being signed by the President, and the end of the deferral period for most of the tariffs initially announced at the start of Q2. As we await the economic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill and the onset of significantly higher tariffs on most of the US' trading pa
The Temperature Rises, Markets Keep Their Cool
In this 100th episode of Street Signals, a theme ever-present throughout its two-year history comes to the fore once again: the ability of financial markets to come to grips with and move past seemingly implacable uncertainty. Q2 2025 alone provided what felt like a decade's worth of seismic and (theoretically) negative shocks to sentiment, yet equity markets have recovered quickly and are poised
Yuan Direction: Asian FX, Oil and the US Rate Outlook
Markets are still grappling with global trade and fiscal policies in flux and we were reminded this week that geopolitical risk is never out of the frame for too long. The broadening of hostilities in Israel and Iran necessarily extends the vigilance of policymakers for first and second order impacts on their economies, carrying with it potential implications for currency and interest rate markets
Asset Allocation In the Age of Fragmentation
Coming to you from our London Research Retreat, this week's episode of Street Signals explores the ongoing fragmentation in the global political economy and its implications for asset managers and asset owners. In a panel discussion with host Tim Graf, guests Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, and Ramu Thiagarajan, head of Thought Leadership at State Stre
US Equities: Complacently Crowded or Suddenly Safe?
Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 can still only be judged through a glass darkly. Indigestion of expanded supply in global fixed income markets similarly clouds the appeal of risky assets. Which makes the resilience of equity markets, and particularly the reversal in US stocks b
Craig Fuller: Tariffs and Twists in Global Supply Chains
The near-constant fluctuation of tariff rates and their implementation dates has rendered economic forecasting an exercise in futility, at both the macro and micro level. But when supply chain disruptions loom, it’s best to hear from Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves, a provider of near real-time data and analysis on all phases of delivery in the global goods economy. From contai
Gold Rush 2.0: Putting the Pedal to the Metal
Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold over the past three years. From inflation fears to geopolitical risk, gold has reclaimed its shine as both a safe haven and strategic asset. Robin explains how central bank buying, ETF flows, and shifting investor sentiment are shaping the gold market&
Dollar Discussions In The Desert
This week, we take Street Signals on the road. As we travel through four countries in the Middle East, Dale Haver, Global Head of FX Sales at State Street Markets, joins us for a quick but expansive chat on FX markets past and present. We talk through the most impactful evolutions in the client experience over a long career in currencies, as well as what's on the horizon. Current markets are never
No Country For Old Macro Men
After an episode of extreme, headline-driven volatility in April, financial markets have shifted to docility in May. Position risks in equity and FX markets are now much reduced and, absent further clarity on US trade and fiscal policies, a wait-and-see approach is the order of the day. Fatigue has set in and, as our guest this week, Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State S
Repricing Markets for US Political Risk
Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previous
Alberto Cavallo: Tracking the Price Impacts of US Tariffs
As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his wor
Bear With Us? Talking Markets Amidst the Maelstrom
Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bonds and currencies have run their course, or if they were preludes to upsets to come. The trade discussion is sure to roll on for the next several months and fiscal policy dynamics are likely to evolve in ways markets must consider. The key question i
Tariffs: The Price Is Fright
Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot
Trading Around Trade: A Risk Manager's Perspective
By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of proposed tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. Of course, if the last three months are any guide, all such news on trade is subject to negotiation and compromise. Having had to deal with a barrage of ever-evolving headlines since the
Tariffs, Targets and Tech: Asia's Pivotal Moment
While US trade and fiscal policy dominate the popular discourse, recent developments across Asia have the potential to be every bit as consequential for FX and equity market returns. Newly announced economic measures from China’s National People’s Congress, the emergence of DeepSeek’s large language model and Japan’s policy choices carry both intra- and inter-regional impli
How Doomed Is the Dollar?
The recent reversals in the US dollar, US rates and US equities have been sharp and rapid. A growing sense that not all is well with the US consumer, as well as a shift in policy prioritization, favoring fiscal consolidation now in the name of expansion later, are largely to blame. At the same time, the European policy mix is looking far more supportive of European assets and the EUR than previous
The Ukraine Peace Process: Signpost to a New Global Order
The breakdown in communication between the US and Ukraine two weeks ago, for all the world to see, raises myriad questions, from the near-term state of the peace process in the Ukraine War, to the further-reaching framework of great power dynamics. As our guest this week details, the roles played in an emergent world order by the US, Europe, Russia and China are in flux, and we face potentially th
Tech Wreck 2025: Bubble Bursting or Buying Opportunity?
Consensus trades have been put to the sword. Expectations for higher rates, a stronger US dollar, crypto currencies to the moon and especially US tech stock outperformance have all floundered on the rocks of political uncertainty, rising fears of a US growth scare and worries over both overvaluation of stocks and future investment needs for AI and other drivers of the IT story. How many of these c
The Other Side in the Trade War
Amidst rising tensions and trade tariffs, market discussion often lands on how rising costs of US imports will affect the American consumer, the US balance of trade, inflation and what it all means for the US dollar. The perspectives of the emerging markets as targets in a potential trade war often get overlooked. With a moratorium on tariffs on Mexico due to expire next week and further duties se
Tariffs, Truce Talks and 3-3-3: Flooding the Macro Zone
Financial markets cannot get a break from headlines. The Trump Administration is rolling out – and in some cases rolling back – trade tariffs at a frenzied pace. Negotiations over peace in Ukraine are only just beginning, with the shape of a resolution anyone’s guess. Fiscal policy is also front and center for bonds, with curbing deficits looking increasingly difficult as defense
Ben Ashby: Applying History’s Lessons to Today's Markets
From interest rate cycles to equity valuations, long-term market trends follow a rhythm that shapes global macro—often in ways that aren’t immediately obvious. Add AI’s growing influence and political uncertainty, and navigating today’s landscape becomes even trickier. This week, Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe, joins the podcast to break it all down. A keen student of mar
Richard Windsor: DeepSeek and the AI Arms Race
Last week's emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model promising transformative cost savings and strong performance relative to other large language models, posed a wide array of long-term questions. Does DeepSeek's emergence represent a game-changer for the industry? What geopolitical implications might it have? And, how impregnable are the moats around the existing, large competitors in the IT ec
Short-Term Market Turmoil, Long-Term Building Blocks
A tricky few weeks in markets are putting several of the consensus trades to the sword. As investors grapple with mixed signals and increasing bifurcation within the global economic outlook, politics and an emerging AI arms race are becoming more prominent in driving day-to-day shifts in returns and sentiment, making the long view all the more important. In this special roundtable edition of the p
Trump vs the Bond Market: Who Blinks?
On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of the new Trump administration speak to extended deficits and higher debt levels, bringing with them the prospect for a return of above-target inflation in the form of potential tariffs and reduced labor supply. Expectations for Federal Reserve activit
Ron O'Hanley: What Matters for Markets In 2025
Two weeks into the New Year, the economic and market outlook for 2025 is marked by uncertainty. Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, joins the podcast to offer his perspective at this critical moment. Ron and host Tim Graf walk through the uncertainties and interdependencies arising from geopolitics, US trade and immigration policy, and global fiscal policy. Discussions of the rel
Putting the Macro Consensus Under the Microscope
The current market consensus sees equities higher, led by continued strength in the tech sector, interest rates staying at current, high levels or even rising further, and a stronger US dollar. But many of these views are already crowded and valuation challenges abound. On this week’s episode, host Tim Graf looks at where the behavioral and fundamental realities available from our proprietar
The Best Reads of 2024
Just before Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our
Trading the Outlook for 2025
This week, we recap the year just gone in macro markets, and get a preview of what’s to come in 2025, in a conversation with traders from the FX desk of State Street Global Markets in Boston. Bill Walsh, head of trading for the Americas, returns to Street Signals with thoughts on the developed, G10 markets, and we welcome Chris Wise, a senior Emerging Markets trader focused on Latin America,
15 Ideas for '25: The Year Ahead Podcast
We head into year-end with our annual presentation of the best opportunities in markets for the New Year. Every December, members of our macro strategy team choose an idea they think has the best chance of success in the next year. Themes emerge from the commonalities and the talking points arise from the contrasts. For 2025, we actually see a more cohesive set of thoughts emerging from the proces
Trump Trades: What's In the Price?
After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US President, with confirmed Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress now thrown in for good measure. After seeing large re-pricings across asset classes and currencies over the last two months, how much of the news is in the price and which of the
Sébastien Page: Going Beyond Diversification
Bridging the gap between financial theory and investment practice has been the hallmark of research at State Street for more than 25 years. So, we are lucky to speak to a pioneer in this endeavor this week. Sébastien Page, head of Global Multi Asset and Chief Investment Officer at T. Rowe Price, joins the podcast, walking us through insights gleaned from over two decades in finance, starting with
Election 2024: What's Next for Markets?
The votes are cast and the results from the 2024 Election are rolling in. In-house election guru Noel Dixon joins Street Signals with his initial thoughts. What were the big surprises and what went as expected? And, given what we know so far, how should we think about the implications for stocks, bonds and the US Dollar over the medium to long term? All this and more on our special election reacti
Fredrik Repton: Preparing Portfolios for Market Turbulence
Among all the other risks, next week’s US election and Federal Reserve meeting dominate the market outlook and look set to drive price action and volatility for the rest of 2024. Debate is intensifying over whether the most appealing consensus views are already aligned with pricing for interest rates and FX and are now subject to disappointment. Fredrik Repton, a senior portfolio manager in fixed
Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Marriage of Convenience?
Private cryptocurrency has been around for 15 years. Institutional acceptance is here. Movement towards public, central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs), on the other hand, is proving more deliberate by design. The demand for safe, digital currencies is growing and the gains from efficiency look significant. But the accompanying risks are under-discussed. We fix that this week and speak with
Martin Gurri: The Consequences of the Digital Age
The rise of the internet 25 years ago amplified information, in the process accelerating the deterioration of institutional structures around the world. Society has so far proven resilient but our abilities to construct and sustain guiding narratives are fraying. The implications for economics, politics and even markets are and will continue to be profound. Martin Gurri, former CIA analyst, author
China: Stimulus and Response
Beijing's latest round of economic stimulus includes a slew of measures to reignite demand and aid in the repair of household balance sheets. So far, the announcements are bold and appear forceful, and they have sparked a surge in risk markets sensitive to Chinese demand. But will words be matched by action and will the latest efforts to kick-start the Chinese economy be effective? This week, Yuti
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