Probable Causation is a podcast about law, economics, and crime. It is hosted by Jennifer Doleac, an economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice. The show examines research and evidence related to criminal justice and policy. Episodes likely feature discussions with researchers and experts on these topics.
Episodes
Episode 129: Johannes Kasinger on how retail crime affects prices
Johannes Kasinger talks about how retail crime affects prices.
“The Pass-Through of Retail Crime” by Carl Hase and Johannes Kasinger.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Is murder bad for business? Evidence from Colombia" by Sandra V. Rozo.
“Market structure and extortion: Evidence from 50,000 extortion payments" by Zach Y Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micae
Episode 128: Diogo Britto on job loss and criminal behavior in Brazil
Diogo Britto talks about how job loss affects criminal behavior in Brazil.
“The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti, and Breno Sampaio.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Crime and the Labour Market" by Richard B. Freeman.
“Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence From Danish Microdata and Reforms" by Patrick Benn
Episode 127: Manisha Shah on reducing intimate partner violence among young people in Tanzania
Manisha Shah talks about reducing intimate partner violence among young people in Tanzania.
"Sex, Power, and Adolescence: Intimate Partner Violence and Sexual Behaviors" by Manisha Shah, Jennifer Seager, Joao Montalvao, and Markus Goldstein.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Income Changes and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Unconditional Cash Transfers in Kenya" by Johannes H
Episode 126: Juan Vargas on the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia
Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia.
"The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement" by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Inside the war on drugs: Effectiveness and unintended consequences of a large illicit crops eradication program in Colombia" by Al
Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit.
"Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities" by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Freedman, and David C. Phillips.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Getting to Work: Experimental Evidence on Job Search and Transportation Co
Bonus episode 16: Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden in conversation about their new books
Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment.
Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.
Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, the Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness.
Jennifer Doleac is the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures.
Paige Harden
Episode 124: Steeve Marchand on the effects of prison programs
Steeve Marchand talks about the effects of prison programs on behavior.
"Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix, and Steeve Marchand.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, J
Episode 123: Ezra Golberstein on school-based mental health services
Ezra Golberstein talks about the impacts of school-based mental health services.
"Effects of School-Based Mental Health Services on Youth Outcomes" by Ezra Golberstein, Irina Zainullina, Aaron Sojourner, and Mark A. Sander.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Investing in Children to Address the Child Mental Health Crisis" by Janet Currie.
“The FDA and ABCs: Unintended Consequences of
Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police (REBROADCAST)
Check out my new book!
The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice
In this episode of Probable Causation:
Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. This episode was first posted in April 2024.
“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Thinking, fast and
Episode 122: Vijetha Koppa on Lethality Assessment Programs
Vijetha Koppa talks about Lethality Assessment Programs used by police in domestic violence incidents.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Does the Certainty of Arrest Reduce Domestic Violence? Evidence from Mandatory and Recommended Arrest Laws" by Radha Iyengar.
"Revisiting the Effect of Warrantless Domestic Violence Arrest Laws on Intimate Partner Homicides" by Yoo Mi Chin and Scott
Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records
Peter Blair talks about occupational licenses as information about criminal records.
“Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing" by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger.
“Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Mark
Episode 120: Joseph Doyle on improving foster care outcomes
Joseph Doyle talks about improving foster care outcomes.
“Effects of Enhanced Legal Aid in Child Welfare: Evidence from a Randomized Trial of Mi Abogado” by Ryan Cooper, Joseph J. Doyle, and Andrés Hojman.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effects of Legal Representation on Tenant Outcomes in Housing Court: Evidence from New York City’s Universal Access Program” by Michael T. Cassi
Bonus episode 15: Jens Ludwig on his book, Unforgiving Places
Barry Friedman talks with Jens Ludwig about his book: Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.
Episode 119: Elin Colmsjö on how health shocks affect criminal behavior
Elin Colmsjö talks about how health shocks affect criminal behavior.
“Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime” by Steffen Andersen, Elin Colmsjö, Gianpaolo Parise, and Kim Peijnenburg.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation" by Isaac Ehrlich.
“Long-term and spillover effects of health shocks on emplo
Episode 118: Sekou Keita on media reporting policies, crime, and immigration
Sekou Keita talks about how media policies that limit information reported about criminal offenders can unintentionally increase bias against the group they're trying to protect.
“The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration” by Sekou Kenta, Thomas Renault, and Jérôme Valette.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Anti-Muslim voting and me
Episode 117: Nour Abdul-Razzak on cognitive behavioral therapy for at-risk youth
Nour Abdul-Razzak talks about her research on a cognitive behavioral therapy program called Choose to Change.
“Longer-term Impacts of a Youth Behavioral Science Intervention: Experimental Evidence from Chicago” by Nour Abdul-Razzak, Brandon Domash, Kelly Hallberg, and Cristobal Pinto Poehls.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Scarcity: Why having too little means so much by Sendhil Mulla
Episode 116: Crystal Yang on accreditation of jail-based health care
Crystal Yang talks about her research on the accreditation of jail-based health care.
“The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal Yang.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Impact of hospital accreditation on quality improvement in healthcare: A systematic review” by Mohammad J. Alhawajreh, Audrey S. Paterson, and Wi
Episode 115: Steve Mello on the long-term financial consequences of small fines
Steve Mello talks the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines.
“Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2017" by Jeff Larrimore, Alex Durante, Kimberly Kreiss, Christina Park, and Claudia Sahm.
"Criminalizing poverty: The consequences of court fees in a randomized exp
Episode 114: Rachel Nesbit on mandating mental health treatment for probationers
Rachel Nesbit talks about the effects of mandating mental health treatment for probationers.
“The Role of Mandated Mental Health Treatment in the Criminal Justice System” by Rachel Nesbit.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Calgary Diversion Program: A Community-Based Alternative to Incarceration for Mentally Ill Offenders” by Craig Mitton, Liz Simpson, Leslie Gardner, Fran Barnes, and
Episode 113: Peter Hull on a jail-based education program called IGNITE
Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE.
“'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform” by Robert Martinson.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Emplo
Episode 112: Abi Adams on economic abuse and intimate partner violence
Abi Adams talks about economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence.
“The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Motherhood and Violence" by Gabriela Deschamps.
"Female empowerment and male backlash: Experimental evidence from India" by Claire Cullen, Sarthak Joshi, Joseph Vecci, an
Episode 84: Alex Albright on bail reform (REBROADCAST)
Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform.
“No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and E
Episode 111: Roman Rivera on electronic monitoring during the pretrial period
Roman Rivera talks about the effects of electronic monitoring for US pretrial defendants.
“Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Cryst
Episode 110: Aurélie Ouss on misaligned incentives in the criminal justice system
Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions.
“Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States” by Aurélie Ouss.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz.
"The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment" by David H. Autor and Mark G. Dugg
Episode 109: Anjali Adukia on restorative justice practices in schools
Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior.
“From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Ju
Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior (REBROADCAST)
Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019.
"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"D
Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST)
Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.
“Parental Arrest and Incarce
Episode 108: Emma Rackstraw on "Copaganda"
Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes.
“When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers” by Emma Rackstraw.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn
"‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss.
“The Birth
Episode 107: David Macdonald on truth-in-sentencing policies
David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies.
“Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism” by David Macdonald.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws” by Joanna M. Shepherd.
“Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-sentenci
Episode 106: Ryan Sakoda on post-release supervision
Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision.
“Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision” by Ryan Sakoda.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Intensive Probation and Parole" by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner.
“The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C.
Episode 105: Amanda Agan on how sealing criminal records affects employment
Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment.
“Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith
“Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrim
Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police
Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police.
“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Polla
Episode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime (REBROADCAST)
Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” b
Episode 21: Aurelie Ouss on reducing failures-to-appear in court (REBROADCAST)
Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.
"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preve
Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague on Medicaid access and recidivism
Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague talk about the effects of Medicaid enrollment on recidivism.
"In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jacome.
Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jacome
Episode 102: William Arbour on prison-based behavioral programs
William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil M
Episode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making (REBROADCAST)
Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.
"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimu
Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST)
Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs.
"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations"
Episode 101: Xinming Du on social media content and offline violence
Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence.
“Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks” by Adam Kramer, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock.
“Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence
Episode 100: Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho on renter protection policies
Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis.
“The Impact of Renter Protection Policies on Housing Discrimination in Minneapolis” by Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Unintended Consequences of ‘Ban the Box’: Statistical Discrimination and Emp
Episode 99: Ben Feigenberg on class disparities in traffic stops
Ben Feigenberg talks about socioeconomic disparities in who police stop for traffic offenses.
“Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Have Efficiency Costs?” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.
“Smartphone Data Reveal Neigh
Episode 98: Evan Rose on community supervision
Evan Rose talks about community supervision, and the costs and benefits of incarceration as a consequence for breaking probation rules
“Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Five Year Outcomes in a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Multi-Agency Intensive Supervision Juvenile Probatio
Episode 67: David Phillips on mental health care for people released from jail (REBROADCAST)
David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. This episode was first posted in February 2022.
“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, an
Episode 20: J.J. Prescott on sex offender registries (REBROADCAST)
J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. This episode was first posted in January 2020.
"Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Gree
Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt on the Great Migration and economic mobility (REBROADCAST)
Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jo
Episode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care (REBROADCAST)
Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. This episode was first posted in November 2021.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce C
Episode 47: Greg Midgette on the 24/7 Sobriety program (REBROADCAST)
Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021.
“Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette.
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“When Brute Force Fails: How to Have
Episode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting (REBROADCAST)
Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021.
"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabet
Episode 8: Amanda Agan on Ban the Box policies (REBROADCAST)
Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employm
Episode 97: Allison Stashko on prosecutor elections and police accountability
Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability.
“Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Collec
Episode 96: Andreas Kotsadam on jobs and intimate partner violence
Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia.
“Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting
Episode 95: Marcella Alsan on fear and the social safety net
Marcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs.
“Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE
Episode 94: Jesse Bruhn on the effects of gangs in Chicago
Jesse Bruhn talks about the effects of gangs in Chicago.
“Competition in the Black Market: Estimating the Causal Effect of Gangs in Chicago” by Jesse Bruhn.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Predi
Episode 93: Justin Holz on peer effects in police use of force
Justin Holz talks about peer effects in police use of force.
“Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effect
Episode 92: Laura Khoury on the mental health effects of prison in Norway
Laura Khoury talks about the mental health effects of prison in Norway.
“Prison, Mental Health, and Family Spillovers” by Manudeep Bhuller, Laura Khoury, and Katrine V. Løken.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN TH
Bonus episode: Joanna Schwartz on accountability for police misconduct
David Eil talks with Joanna Schwartz about her book, "Shielded: How the Police Became Untouchable."
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
Episode 91: Allison Harris on registering returning citizens to vote
Allison Harris talks about increasing the civic engagement of people with felony convictions.
"Registering Returning Citizens to Vote” by Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Allison Harris, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank y
Episode 90: Matthew Ross on police field training
Matthew Ross talks about how field training officers affect police use of force.
“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESE
Episode 89: Graeme Blair on community policing in the Global South
Graeme Blair talks about the effects of community policing in the Global South.
“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Mors
Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin on reducing gun violence
Sara Heller and Max Kapustin talk about the effects of the READI program on gun violence in Chicago.
“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider ma
Episode 87: Emily Nix on violence against women at work
Emily Nix talks about how violence against women at work affects the victims, perpetrators, and firms.
“Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTH
Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST)
Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.
"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contr
Episode 3: Analisa Packham on syringe exchange programs (REBROADCAST)
Analisa Packham talks about the effects of syringe exchange programs on HIV rates, opioid abuse, and crime. This episode was first posted in May 2019.
"Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic" by Analisa Packham.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-
Episode 86: Elizabeth Luh on financial penalties
Elizabeth Luh talks about the effects of financial penalties in the criminal justice system.
“The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas” by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show,
Episode 85: Sofia Amaral on reducing street harassment in India
Sofia Amaral talks about a police intervention in India that aims to reduce sexual harassment in public.
“Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
[Working paper available from the authors.]
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Init
Episode 84: Alex Albright on bail reform
Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform.
“No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISO
Episode 83: Kevin Wilson on DC’s 911 nurse triage line
Kevin Wilson talks about a new approach for handling non-emergency health calls to 911: a nurse triage line in Washington, DC.
“Nurses in the 911 Loop Improve Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Chrysanthi Hatzimasoura, Rebecca A. Johnson, Kevin H. Wilson, Robert P. Holman, Ryan T. Moore, and David Yokum.
Minor correction: During this conversation, Kevin mentioned that nurses could book primar
Episode 82: Kirabo Jackson on the multiple dimensions of school quality
Kirabo Jackson talks about the multiple dimensions of school quality, and whether parents can tell which schools are better than others.
“What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output” by Diether Beuerman, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you
Episode 81: Anita Mukherjee on how heat affects violence in prisons
Anita Mukherjee talks about how heat affects violent behavior in prisons.
“The Causal Effect of Heat on Violence: Social Implications of Unmitigated Heat Among the Incarcerated” by Anita Mukherjee and Nicholas J. Sanders.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting
Episode 80: Thomas Dee on sending health workers to 911 calls
Thomas Dee talks about the effects of dispatching health workers instead of police to some 911 calls.
“A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for suppor
Episode 22: Phil Levine on gun exposure and accidental shootings (REBROADCAST)
Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. This episode was first posted in February 2020.
"Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please con
Episode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime (REBROADCAST)
Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.
"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” b
Episode 79: Jenny Williams on electronic monitoring
Jenny Williams talks about electronic monitoring as an alternative to incarceration.
“Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS E
Episode 78: Sandip Sukhtankar on Women’s Help Desks in police stations in India
Sandip Sukhtankar talks about the effects of Women's Help Desks in police stations in India.
“Policing in Patriarchy: An Experimental Evaluation of Reforms to Improve Police Responsiveness to Women in India” by Gabrielle Kruks-Wisner, Akshay Mangla, and Sandip Sukhtankar.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a ta
Episode 77: Elizabeth Linos on reducing burnout for 911 dispatchers
Elizabeth Linos talks about reducing burnout for frontline workers like 911 dispatchers.
“Reducing Burnout and Resignations Among Frontline Workers: A Field Experiment” by Elizabeth Linos, Krista Ruffini, and Stephanie Wilcoxen.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for sup
Episode 76: Tim Moore on the long-term effects of the crack cocaine epidemic
Tim Moore talks about the long-term effects of the US crack cocaine epidemic on gun violence.
“Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Than
Episode 75: Panka Bencsik on diversion for drug possession arrests
Panka Bencsik talks about a Chicago diversion program for drug possession arrests.
“Policing Substance Use: Chicago’s Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
***
OTHER RESEARCH
Episode 74: Bryan Stuart on social connectedness and crime
Bryan Stuart talks about how social connectedness within cities affects local crime rates.
“The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration” by Bryan Stuart and Evan Taylor.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
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OT
Episode 73: Danila Serra on ethics training for police in Ghana
Danila Serra talks about the effects of a new ethics training program for police officers in Ghana.
“Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police in Ghana” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible
Episode 72: Manasi Deshpande on SSI benefits and crime
Manasi Deshpande talks about how access to Supplementary Security Income (SSI) benefits affects criminal behavior.
“Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution
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